Retail Predictions for 2024: What’s in Store for the Industry?

As someone who has been sharing annual predictions for the retail industry since 2018, I always take the time to reflect on how accurate my previous forecasts have been. In this article, I will dive into the remaining six of my predictions for 2024, along with some wild cards that could shake up the industry.

7. Department Stores Struggle to Stay Afloat

The decline of department stores has been a major theme in retail, with most players experiencing market share losses in recent years. Despite efforts to revitalize their businesses, department stores like Macy’s, Nordstrom, Saks, and Neiman Marcus continue to face challenges. Expect to see more market share losses, store closings, and disappointing profits in the coming year.

Wild Card: Kohl’s Merger with Catalyst Brands

A potential merger between Kohl’s and Catalyst Brands could help streamline operations and cut costs in the struggling department store sector. This move, spearheaded by new leadership at Kohl’s, could be a game-changer in the industry.

8. Target Faces Tough Challenges

Target has been lagging behind Walmart in recent years, with the need for bolder action to regain lost ground. CEO Brian Cornell’s position may be in jeopardy, and we could see strategic shifts in partnerships and store operations at Target.

Wild Card: Target Goes Private

Privatizing Target could provide the company with the flexibility to make bold moves and improve its competitive position. This move could be a lifeline for the company and its leadership.

9. More Store Closings on the Horizon

Physical retail is not dead, but mediocre retailers are facing tough times. As online sales continue to grow, many unremarkable retailers will struggle to stay afloat, leading to an increase in store closings in the coming year.

10. Amazon’s Grocery Ambitions Remain Uncertain

Amazon’s push into the grocery sector has faced challenges, with the company still trying to find its footing. The future of Amazon Fresh and potential acquisitions in the grocery space remain up in the air for the e-commerce giant.

Wild Card: Amazon Explores Another Grocery Acquisition

While a major grocery acquisition could leapfrog Amazon’s presence in the grocery market, it remains to be seen if such a move is within reach for the tech giant. Alternative non-grocery acquisitions may be more feasible for Amazon in the near future.

11. Retail Deals Heat Up

Expect to see more activity in the IPO and M&A markets, particularly with disruptor brands attracting interest from larger players. Brands like Allbirds, Away, and ThredUp could be potential targets for acquisition in the coming year.

12. Retailers Prepare for the Ozempic Revolution

The rise of GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic could have a significant impact on consumer behavior and product offerings in the retail sector. As more Americans use these drugs for weight loss and other health benefits, retailers will need to adapt their strategies to cater to changing consumer needs.

For more insights on these predictions, tune in to this week’s episode of the Remarkable Retail podcast.