The Riskiest Asteroid Ever Detected: 2024 YR4
In a recent discovery, scientists have identified a new asteroid named 2024 YR4, which is now considered the most hazardous asteroid ever detected. Both NASA and the European Space Agency have calculated the risk of this space rock colliding with Earth in 2032, with NASA estimating a 3.1% chance and the European Space Agency’s risk assessment at 2.8%.
The difference in percentages between the two agencies is due to their use of different tools for determining the asteroid’s orbit and modeling its potential impact. However, both percentages exceed the 2.7% chance of collision associated with the asteroid Apophis, discovered in 2004, making 2024 YR4 the most significant space rock identified in the last two decades.
Further updates from NASA on Wednesday revealed that 2024 YR4 now has a 1.5% chance of colliding with Earth in December 2032, based on new observations following the passage of the full moon. This fluctuation in probabilities is expected as astronomers gather more observational data on the asteroid.
Measuring 1,148 feet (350 meters) in diameter, Apophis was previously considered one of the most hazardous asteroids, with a chance of hitting the planet and scoring a 4 out of 10 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. However, recent analysis of the asteroid’s orbit in 2021 led scientists to revise this assessment.
2024 YR4 currently ranks at 3 on the Torino Scale and is estimated to be 131 to 295 feet (40 to 90 meters) wide, comparable to a large building. According to the ESA, for asteroids larger than 30 meters (98.4 feet) in size, 2024 YR4 now holds the record for the highest impact probability reached and the longest time spent with an impact probability greater than 1%.
Astronomers are closely monitoring 2024 YR4 using a variety of telescopes to understand its size and orbit better, with hopes of revealing lower chances of a collision in 2032 than what current data suggests.
Richard Binzel, the inventor of the Torino Scale, explained that Apophis’ ranking of 4 was the highest level ever reached on the scale. Currently, apart from 2024 YR4, there are no other known objects scoring above zero on the scale. Binzel emphasized that Apophis reached a 4 due to its larger size capable of regional damage, while 2024 YR4 ranks at 3, indicating potential local damage.
The concept for the Torino Scale was presented by Binzel at a 1995 UN conference and later adopted by the International Astronomical Union. The scale provides a simplified way to communicate the risks of near-Earth objects to astronomers and the public.
Binzel highlighted that uncertainties in preliminary orbits of asteroids often result in collision probabilities over the next century, and the Torino Scale provides a practical framework for assessing these risks.
While the chances of a significant impact by 2024 YR4 are likely to decrease over time, astronomers emphasize the importance of continued monitoring and tracking of the asteroid to gather more data and refine predictions.
As uncertainties around 2024 YR4’s orbit remain, scientists are working diligently to observe its trajectory and size using ground telescopes and the upcoming James Webb Space Telescope. Webb is expected to begin observing the asteroid in March, aiding astronomers in refining their understanding of the space rock’s orbit.
In conclusion, while the natural expectation is that 2024 YR4 will safely pass Earth, scientists are committed to tracking its movements to ensure accurate predictions and mitigate any potential risks. Nature will ultimately determine the asteroid’s fate, but ongoing efforts in tracking and monitoring are vital to safeguard our planet from potential impacts.