As Champ Week continues, the landscape of college basketball gets more intense with potential bid thieves emerging. Let’s take a closer look at the teams that could shake up the tournament picture in the coming days.
Teams to Watch
AAC: Memphis is a lock for a spot in the tournament, but their knack for tight games could affect bubble teams’ fates.
Atlantic-10: VCU’s at-large chances might hinge on their performance, influencing the bubble’s dynamics.
Big West: UC San Diego and UC Irvine face off for the championship, with the latter potentially making a case for an at-large bid.
Mountain West: Colorado State and Boise State battle it out for the auto-bid, but both teams could face uncertainties with a loss.
Looking ahead, the selection show looms on Sunday, prompting a deeper dive into the bracket. Classification of wins based on the NET rating provides a framework for evaluating team performances:
- Quad 1: Teams ranked 1-30 (home), 1-50 (neutral), 1-75 (away)
- Quad 2: Teams ranked 31-75 (home), 51-100 (neutral), 76-135 (away)
- Quad 3: Teams ranked 76-160 (home), 101-200 (neutral), 136-240 (away)
- Quad 4: Teams ranked 161-364 (home), 201-364 (neutral), 241-364 (away)
Here’s a snapshot of the latest projections as of March 14th, 2025, along with insights on the bubble teams’ status:
Bracket Projections
Atlanta (South) – Raleigh (East)
- 1) Auburn
- **16) Jackson St. / St. Francis***
- 8) Marquette
- 9) Baylor
Seattle – Providence
- 5) Oregon
- **12) McNeese***
- 4) Arizona
- 13) Akron
Milwaukee – Milwaukee
- 6) Saint Mary’s
- 11) West Virginia
- 3) Kentucky
- **14) UNC-Wilmington***
Last Four In and First Four Out
Last Four In:
- Vanderbilt: Despite challenges, Vanderbilt’s mix of wins and losses keeps them on the bubble with a shaky position.
- San Diego State: Strong metrics and key wins keep the Aztecs in contention, albeit with concerns about seeding.
- Boise State: Recent tournament success boosts Boise State’s profile, providing a compelling case for a bid.
- UC Irvine: Uncertainty surrounds UC Irvine’s fate, balancing strong results with predictive metrics.
First Four Out:
- Indiana: Indiana’s solid performance competes with a lack of signature wins, leaving them teetering on the edge.
- Xavier: A competitive record but limited top-tier victories challenge Xavier’s bid hopes.
- Texas: Closing strong, Texas battles non-conference weaknesses for a tournament berth.
- North Carolina: Despite a few bright spots, North Carolina’s resume lacks the quality wins needed for selection.
Conference Breakdown
Breaking down the projected field by conference strength reveals the depth and diversity shaping the NCAA tournament landscape. From powerhouses like the SEC and Big Ten to emerging contenders in smaller conferences, the tournament promises thrilling matchups and fierce competition.
Stay tuned for the latest updates and bracket analysis as March Madness approaches. Follow along on Twitter for real-time insights and expert opinions. Let the madness begin!