Predicting the Best Picture Winner at the Oscars: Can This Formula Tell us the Answer?

The 2025 Oscar nominations have been revealed, shedding light on the highly anticipated field. Yahoo Entertainment has developed a power rankings system to forecast which among the 10 Best Picture nominees stands the best chance of securing the top honor on the glitzy night in Hollywood. This formula takes into account award nominations and predictions, critics’ forecasts, and overall fan enthusiasm. Movies are scored based on these factors, and the films are then ranked according to their total points. The Yahoo Best Picture Leaderboard is regularly updated with fresh predictions. For an in-depth look at the methodology behind this ranking, click here.

Leading the charge in the first official Leaderboard ranking is “Emilia Pérez.” This film has garnered the highest number of Oscar nominations with 13 nods and has emerged as the dark horse of this awards season.

“Anora” and “Wicked” have also received considerable acclaim in recent months, positioning them just behind “Emilia Pérez.” While “Wicked” has more nominations in the technical categories, “Anora” managed to secure a prestigious Best Director nomination.

Meanwhile, “I’m Still Here” has emerged as the surprise contender on the list, and “Nickel Boys” has struck a chord with critics despite being somewhat of an underdog. “A Real Pain,” “Sing Sing,” and “September 5” were all considered strong contenders for Best Picture nominations but failed to make the final cut.

The Oscars nominations were postponed several times in the wake of the devastating fires in Los Angeles, allowing academy members additional time to cast their votes. The ceremony is slated for March 2.

As we await the big night, weekly Leaderboards will be released, offering insights into the shifts and potential surprises. Let’s delve deeper into the current rankings and what lies ahead for these acclaimed films.