The Impact of Amazon Prime Day Sales: A Closer Look
On July 8, as Amazon kicked off its much-anticipated four-day Prime Day sales event, a wave of controversy arose. Momentum Commerce, which oversees an impressive $7 billion in annual sales on the platform, reported a staggering 41% decline in first-day sales compared to the previous year. In response, an Amazon representative asserted that the report was “highly inaccurate,” arguing that third-party analyses lack access to comprehensive data.
Despite Amazon’s rebuttal, the initial report left a strong impression due to what’s known as the anchoring bias—the tendency for the first piece of information encountered to significantly influence perception. Amazon’s follow-up wrap-up, which offered no exact sales figures, only added to the speculation. The company boasted of “record-breaking sales,” but the extended four-day format ensured such claims were somewhat expected.
Even as Adobe Analytics later reported that total e-commerce sales for the event surpassed predictions by hitting $24.1 billion—a 30.3% increase year-over-year—questions regarding the implications of Prime Day results on overall holiday retail performance remained. The comparisons made were akin to “apples to oranges,” complicating an already intricate narrative in the retail landscape.
Evaluating Amazon Prime Day’s Performance
A thorough review of various sources sheds light on Amazon’s performance during Prime Day and reveals important trends in the retail space as the holiday season approaches.
Consumer Spending Trends Before Prime Day
Interestingly, June saw an uptick in consumer spending, with retailers recording a 0.6% seasonally adjusted increase from May and a 3.7% rise year-over-year. This trend suggests that consumers were gearing up for early shopping long before the announcement of Prime Day.
Amazon’s Sales Growth Analysis
While the initial report from Momentum was challenged, its final estimate revealed that Amazon’s sales during the four-day event experienced a mere 4.9% growth compared to the combined performance of last year’s two-day Prime Day. This was considerably lower than Momentum’s anticipated 9.1% growth rate for the event.
The organization noted that demand was expected to be softer at the outset, with potential for growth on the latter days of the event.
Trends in Website Traffic
Similarweb provided insights into online consumer behavior, finding that Amazon’s web traffic actually declined compared year-over-year. Average daily visits during the four-day event fell by 15%, compared to last year’s two-day event, indicating a shift in consumer engagement. Last year’s two-day sales brought in approximately 113.9 million daily visitors, while this year saw an averaged drop to 104.1 million.
Despite this decline, it’s important to note that Amazon still attracted over 400 million visitors through Prime Day, showcasing its massive reach and influence in the online retail space.
Strong Purchase Intent Among Consumers
What’s encouraging, however, is that when consumers did engage with Prime Day, they came prepared to spend. In a survey conducted by Coresight involving 400 consumers, 48% reported making a purchase, a significant increase from the 38% who made purchases last year. Notably, 43% of shoppers indicated they spent more than they originally planned, up from 31% the previous year.
Coresight’s research also highlighted that consumers actively compared offerings across competing retailers like Walmart and Target, engaging with multiple sales events that coincided with Prime Day. This reflects a growing trend of consumers looking for the best deals and maximizing value across their shopping experiences.
John Mercer, the director of global research at Coresight, commented on this behavior, suggesting that with inflation concerns affecting consumer sentiment, many shoppers have opted to spread out their spending, initiating holiday purchases earlier than usual.
Sales Expectations for the Upcoming Holiday Season
As we look towards the upcoming holiday shopping season, experts are optimistic, yet cautious. Coresight predicts growth in retail sales between 2.5% to 3%, though varying scenarios exist based on economic conditions. The model indicates a highlight scenario of 3.5% growth, but this is tempered by concerns around inflation and economic uncertainty.
There’s also a notable risk—about 25% chance—that retail sales could decline by 2.5% or more if economic conditions worsen, leading to reduced consumer spending and a potential downturn in spending behavior.
The Supply Chain Challenge
Compounding these challenges is what Mercer describes as a “lumpy” supply chain, where fluctuations in inventory could disrupt availability during the peak season. Retailers had rushed to stock up on inventory in response to anticipated tariff changes, but post-announcement fluctuations could lead to mismatches between demand and supply.
During the previous holiday season, consumers experienced empty shelves due to supply chain issues, and analysts are wary of repeating this scenario. If demand remains robust but supply falls short, there may be less discounting, contrary to traditional expectations.
The Tenacity of the American Consumer
Despite fears sparked by tariff uncertainties, retail sales have surged by 3.6% in the first half of 2025, totaling $4.2 trillion. June saw inflation tick up slightly to 2.7% from May’s 2.4%, but this remains below the average inflation of 3.3% seen in the first half of 2024. The consumer resilience displayed in 2025 contradicts the rather sluggish growth observed in the previous year.
Katie Thomas of the Kearney Consumer Institute noted that consumers are actively spending despite surrounding uncertainties, shrugging off tariff fears as retail trends show relative stability compared to previous months.
As the year progresses, it remains paramount to monitor consumer responses to external influences on the economy. While many experts predict a cooling off in retail sales, the resilience of American consumers may solidify the expectations of staving off declines, making positive growth scenarios increasingly plausible.