Wild-Card Round Upsets: Paths to Victory for Underdogs

Matt Bowen, ESPN Staff Writer – Jan 10, 2025, 06:35 AM ET

Every year, the wild-card round of the NFL playoffs brings surprise winners, with underdogs defying the odds. In January 2024, the Texans, Packers, and Buccaneers all pulled off unexpected victories, showcasing the unpredictability of the postseason. Could we see more upsets this weekend? Let’s break down the paths to victory for the six underdogs in the upcoming matchups.

For each game, we have identified key strategies that could help tilt the scales in favor of the underdogs. By analyzing personnel matchups, strategic advantages, coaching styles, and game tape, we highlight how each underdog can secure a win and advance to the next round of the playoffs.

Jump to an underdog:
DEN | GB | HOU | LAR | PIT | WSH

Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills

Game: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount+)
FPI projection: BUF, 68.1% by an average of 7.1 points
ESPN BET: BUF -8 (47.5 O/U)

1. Steal from the Lions’ offensive game plan.

If the Broncos want to pull off an upset, they should take a page out of the Lions’ playbook from their Week 15 game against the Bills. By studying how Jared Goff found success against Buffalo’s zone-heavy defense, Denver can create opportunities for rookie quarterback Bo Nix to exploit the middle of the field effectively. Nix’s proficiency in throwing down the middle aligns well with Buffalo’s coverage tendencies, making this a key area for the Broncos to target.

2. Scheme for receiver Marvin Mims Jr.

Utilizing the talents of receiver Marvin Mims Jr. could be a game-changer for the Broncos. With Mims emerging as a significant threat in the passing game, Denver can leverage his skills to create explosive plays and challenge Buffalo’s zone coverage. By designing plays specifically for Mims, the Broncos can capitalize on his playmaking ability and stretch the field against the Bills’ defense.

Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Game: Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox)
FPI projection: PHI, 51.2% by an average of 0.4 points
ESPN BET: PHI -4.5 (45.5 O/U)

1. Create misdirection in the gap run game with running back Josh Jacobs.

For the Packers to overcome the Eagles, they need to implement misdirection and gap schemes in their running game to counter Philadelphia’s defensive strategy. By incorporating backfield movement and deceptive plays, Green Bay can confuse the Eagles’ defense and open up opportunities for running back Josh Jacobs to make impactful plays.

2. Scheme linebacker Edgerrin Cooper as a versatile matchup player.

Green Bay should utilize the versatility of linebacker Edgerrin Cooper to disrupt the Eagles’ offense and limit their playmaking options. With Cooper’s speed and agility, the Packers can deploy him in various roles to apply pressure, cover passing lanes, and neutralize Philadelphia’s offensive threats. By leveraging Cooper’s abilities strategically, Green Bay can gain an edge on defense and stifle the Eagles’ attack.

Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Game: Sunday, 8 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock)
FPI projection: TB, 58.3% by an average of 3.3 points
ESPN BET: TB -3 (50.5 O/U)

1. Throw leveled concepts inside.

To outsmart Tampa Bay’s zone-heavy defense, Washington’s offense should focus on executing leveled passing concepts that target the middle of the field. By utilizing high-to-low reads and quick releases, quarterback Jayden Daniels can exploit the Bucs’ defensive scheme and find success in the passing game. Receiver Terry McLaurin can be a key weapon in this strategy, creating opportunities for big plays in the middle of the field.

2. Have a red zone plan for receiver Mike Evans.

To contain Tampa Bay’s red zone threat, Mike Evans, Washington must devise a plan to limit his impact in critical scoring situations. By deploying cornerback Marshon Lattimore and strategic safety coverages, the Commanders can mitigate Evans’ effectiveness and prevent him from capitalizing on red zone opportunities. Winning in the red zone could be crucial for Washington to pull off an upset against the favored Buccaneers.

Rams vs. Vikings

Game: Monday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC/ESPN+)
FPI projection: MIN, 53.9% by an average of 1.2 points
ESPN BET: MIN -2.5 (47.5 O/U)

1. Prep for the Vikings’ defensive pressure.

The Rams must be prepared to handle the Vikings’ aggressive pass rush, led by defensive coordinator Brian Flores. With a high blitz rate, Minnesota presents a formidable challenge for Los Angeles’ offensive line. Utilizing quick passes, effective screen plays, and strategic protections can help the Rams neutralize the Vikings’ pressure and keep quarterback Matthew Stafford upright.

2. Attack the interior of the Vikings’ offensive line.

By targeting the weaknesses in Minnesota’s interior offensive line, the Rams can disrupt the Vikings’ blocking schemes and generate pressure on quarterback Sam Darnold. Leveraging the skills of rookie defensive tackle Braden Fiske and employing stunts and blitzes can create favorable matchups and limit Minnesota’s offensive capabilities. Winning the battle in the trenches will be key for the Rams to outplay the favored Vikings.

By executing these strategic plans, the underdogs in each matchup have a chance to defy the odds and secure unexpected victories in the wild-card round of the NFL playoffs.